As we head into July, the most reliable prediction for Colorado might not be the most uplifting one.
That usually indicates we’re getting close. Coach Prime will meet with reporters next Tuesday to kickoff Big 12 Media Days.
Currently, the Buffs appear to be a team that could finish anywhere between 5-7 and 7-5, with 6-6 being the most straightforward heat-check forecast before training camp. This isn’t meant to be disrespectful; it’s simply a reflection of a schedule that lacks clear easy wins and features many matchups that could go either way.
There is a potential path to a bowl game. However, there’s also a scenario where Colorado improves from last year yet still finds itself struggling in November.
This is why the season opener against Georgia Tech is so crucial.
It’s just Week 1, so it would be an overstatement to say the entire season hinges on it. But let’s be real: if Colorado secures a win, the outlook for the rest of the schedule changes dramatically. Conversely, a loss could make the road to a bowl game quite daunting right from the start.
The game against Weber State should still be a win for Colorado, but it doesn’t feel like a complete walkover. Devin Brown has experience in high-stakes football from his time at Ohio State and Cal, and now he’s back near home in a system he’s very familiar with from high school. That’s significant. While he may be playing at the FCS level now, he’s not just another random quarterback stepping onto Folsom Field. Colorado is expected to win, but they shouldn’t treat this game lightly.
The away game at Northwestern seems like a must-win if Colorado aims for a comfortable bowl season. No one is going to throw a celebration for beating Northwestern in September, but those are precisely the types of games that distinguish a 6-6 record from a 5-7 one.
Then we dive into the Big 12 portion of the schedule, and that’s where the real challenges begin. Facing Baylor will be tough. Texas Tech appears a bit more manageable now that Brendan Sorsby isn’t in the picture, but that doesn’t mean the Red Raiders are an easy target. It simply means this matchup feels less intimidating than it did a few weeks ago.
The middle part of the schedule is where the concern lies. Utah, Kansas State, and Arizona State are the types of games where Colorado could perform well yet still fall short. There’s a chance the Buffs might snag a win; they likely need to. Expecting them to win two out of those three games seems like a tall order at this moment.
There is significant pressure on the latter part of the schedule. The outcomes against Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF could determine whether Colorado finds themselves playing in late December or reflecting on what went wrong.
The Buffs probably need to secure two of those three games. If they manage to win all three, a 7-5 record, or better, becomes a real possibility.
Game-by-game preseason picks:
Georgia Tech: Loss
Weber State: Win
Northwestern: Win
Baylor: Loss
Texas Tech: Loss
Utah: Loss
Oklahoma State: Win
Kansas State: Loss
Arizona State: Loss
Houston: Win
Cincinnati: Loss
UCF: Win
Projected record: 6-6
That seems reasonable for July. It’s not a doomsday scenario, nor is it overly optimistic. It’s simply a realistic evaluation of a schedule that doesn’t give Colorado much leeway.
The Buffs don’t need a miraculous season to return to bowl eligibility. They must handle Weber State, win the winnable Big 12 matchups, and pull off an unexpected victory that shifts the season narrative.
The opener in Atlanta may not determine the entire season for Colorado, but it certainly has the potential to influence how the rest of the season feels.
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