If the folks over at ESPN’s Football Power Index are to be believed, Colorado is in for a long, average season.
The Buffs were slotted at No. 49 nationally in the updated 2025 FPI, 11th among Big 12 programs, with a projected win total of 6.5.
But this isn’t new. Colorado's been underestimated since the moment Coach Prime stepped foot in Boulder.
Yes, the Buffs lost their two biggest stars—Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter—to the NFL. Yes, this roster looks different. Again. But being different is kind of the whole point here, isn't it?
Colorado isn’t trying to blend in with the other Big 12 schools. They’re trying to build something special.
The FPI, a predictive model based on returning production, recruiting metrics, strength of schedule, and efficiency stats, doesn’t exactly favor risk-takers. It’s a conservative projection tool. And to its credit, it rarely bets on chaos. But Colorado lives in chaos.
Let’s look at what the model projects: a 6.5-5.5 season, with expected wins over Delaware, Houston, Wyoming, Arizona, and West Virginia. Losses? The computer says BYU, TCU, Kansas State, Arizona State, Iowa State, Utah, and even Georgia Tech in the opener will get the better of the Buffs.
The model ranks CU’s conference slate as the toughest in the entire Big 12, and third-hardest overall. The Buffs didn’t catch any breaks with this schedule, apparently.
Still, don’t mistake the FPI for truth. We saw this last year when Colorado was projected to finish last in the Big 12, and went 7-2. This program is used to being doubted. And the Buffs are also getting used to defying that doubt.
Kaidon Salter is no Shedeur Sanders—but that’s not the expectation. Salter doesn’t need to be a superstar. He needs to manage the offense, protect the football, and feed playmakers like the incoming transfer wideouts Joseph Williams and Sincere Brown.
Defensively, CU’s added size and speed at all three levels, especially in the secondary. Is it a complete unit yet? No. But talent isn’t lacking. Experience might be. But again, we’ve been here before.
Back in 2023, the Buffs went into Fort Worth against TCU with a team full of newcomers and walked out with the biggest upset of the season. They didn’t finish strong, but the flashes of talent were undeniable. And that kind of upside is still present for Colorado—just with different names this time around.
What FPI doesn’t measure is belief. It doesn’t factor in how much this team has to prove. It can’t calculate the chip-on-the-shoulder this roster will play with when it feels counted out. We're already seeing it in those intense summer workout videos.
Sure, a 6-6 season might be what the model spits out. But this team isn’t built to be average. Not with the amount of talent we added (which is very underrated by the way). Not with the toughness Prime is instilling.
So go ahead and slot Colorado 49th. Call them unproven.
Because history has shown that’s exactly when the Buffs are the most dangerous.
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