As crazy as it sounds, I almost feel more confident about Colorado making a bowl game at 2-5 than I did when the Buffaloes were 2-2.
I’ve closely watched every game of the Coach Prime era, and the current record doesn’t tell the whole story. Granted, a loss next week at home could dramatically change my outlook.
Colorado has lost five straight, but the Buffs have just completed a difficult stretch against three of the Big 12’s strongest teams: Utah, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Utah is unbeaten, while Texas Tech and Oklahoma State remain in the conference race.
Colorado showed it could compete in those games. Against Texas Tech, the Buffs were still within one score early in the fourth quarter before the Red Raiders pulled away. Against Utah, Colorado led 17-13 with four minutes left in the third quarter before falling 27-24. Last night, the Buffs took a 24-23 halftime lead on the road against Oklahoma State. Quarterback Isaac Wilson completed 14 of 16 passes for 222 yards before halftime, and Colorado scored on four of its first six possessions.
Deion Sanders says this team has not quit. After watching those performances, I believe him. But the second half in Stillwater was a complete mess: Oklahoma State scored 34 unanswered points, and the Buffs never recovered from a fumble on their first play after halftime.
That leaves a real question about Colorado’s final five games. At 2-5, the Buffs need four wins to reach bowl eligibility. On paper, Houston is the only remaining opponent against whom Colorado looks like a decisive underdog. But the schedule is loaded with games that matter to the opponents, too. Kansas State and Arizona State are both 4-3 and still need wins to strengthen their bowl chances. UCF is also 4-3 and coming off an upset of No. 2 BYU. Cincinnati is 5-2 and just beat Texas Tech, keeping its own conference-title hopes alive.
A difficult but reachable path
Colorado opens the stretch at home against Kansas State on Oct. 31 at 2 p.m. on TNT. The Buffs then travel to Arizona State on Nov. 7. After that comes the late-night home matchup with No. 14 Houston on Nov. 13 at 10:15 p.m. on ESPN. Colorado visits Cincinnati on Nov. 21 before closing at home against UCF on Nov. 28.
There’s an argument to be made that Colorado has comparable talent to each of those five teams. The bigger unknown is whether the Buffs can sustain their effort and execution for four quarters.
You can only win one game at a time. I can envision Colorado beating Kansas State, then Arizona State, and carrying that momentum into a late-night home game against Houston with a chance to shock the world. I can also see the exact opposite happening.
Colorado did not get many favors from the schedule in Year 4 of the Coach Prime era. The bowl opportunity remains, but the Buffs have to turn the promising stretches they showed against Texas Tech, Utah and Oklahoma State into wins.
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