Colorado’s 41-7 loss to Northwestern did more than end an undefeated start. It exposed how quickly Coach Prime’s fourth season could unravel and turned Saturday’s Big 12 opener at Baylor into a game the Buffaloes may have to win.
Colorado is now 2-1 and needs four more victories to become bowl eligible. The problem is that the schedule no longer contains an obvious win.
On paper, the Buffs will likely be an underdog against Texas Tech, Utah, Kansas State, Arizona State and Houston. If all five games go as expected, the Buffaloes would have to win every other remaining game against Baylor, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and UCF to finish 6 and 6.
That narrow road begins Saturday in Waco.
The presumed victories are disappearing
Baylor is 2-1 and came within one point of beating Auburn. Cincinnati is 3-0, although the Bearcats needed to overcome a 28-7 halftime deficit to escape Miami of Ohio. UCF is 2-1 and trying to demonstrate progress after finishing 5-7 during the first season of Scott Frost’s return.
Even Oklahoma State no longer looks like the favorable matchup it appeared to be during the offseason.
The Cowboys went 1-11 last season and entered 2026 with Eric Morris attempting to rebuild the program. They have already accelerated that process by upsetting Oregon 39-31 before shutting out Murray State 59-0.
Colorado’s four most manageable remaining opponents are a combined 9-3. The Buffaloes may need to sweep all four.
That makes Baylor feel like the first elimination game of the season. If Colorado loses in Waco and then drops the five games in which it appears overmatched, its ceiling would be five victories, even with wins over Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and UCF.
The larger judgment facing Deion Sanders
There is also a growing program building criticism that cannot be ignored.
Colorado finished the 2024 regular season 9-3 and reached the Alamo Bowl. At that point, the Buffaloes appeared to be ahead of Texas Tech, Utah and Houston, level with Kansas State and within striking distance of Arizona State.
Less than two years later, all five programs appear stronger than Colorado.
That is particularly concerning because Sanders is now in Year 4. He has had multiple recruiting cycles, aggressive access to the transfer portal, enormous national exposure and significant institutional investment. Yet several Big 12 programs have developed, recovered or sustained success more effectively.
Missing a bowl would mean Colorado failed to reach the postseason in three of Sanders’ four seasons. The 2024 breakthrough would begin to look like an isolated run powered by Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter rather than the foundation of a sustainable program.
Colorado’s best scenario is reaching five victories before its final two games. That would allow the Buffaloes to split against Cincinnati and UCF. Entering those games with only four wins would require a sweep against two teams potentially fighting for their own postseason futures.
Scott Satterfield could be coaching to secure another season at Cincinnati. Frost may not be on the hot seat, but UCF needs to improve upon last year’s 5-7 record.
Colorado does not want its season, and perhaps the long term perception of the Coach Prime era, riding on those final two Saturdays.
The Buffaloes still control their bowl path. But after Northwestern, that path is narrower, more dangerous and increasingly dependent upon winning immediately at Baylor.
Add us as a preferred source on Google