This isn’t a path to the College Football Playoff. It’s a path to a bowl game like the Guaranteed Rate Bowl or the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl.
Colorado and Coach Prime have lost their last two games, to Northwestern and Baylor. Both were viewed as toss-ups before the season, but the Northwestern matchup proved to be anything but close. Baylor also looked like the better team when it mattered the most.
The game in Waco had opportunities that could have gone the Buffs’ way, but it didn’t. At 2-2, Colorado has shown enough to keep the bowl conversation alive, though its play has looked closer to a 1-3 team than a 3-1 team. Is there still a path to six wins? Let’s take a look.
The next two games look extremely daunting
Saturday’s matchup with Texas Tech would be a major upset if Colorado pulled it off. The Red Raiders are a top ranked team, and the Buffs will have their hands full. Many analysts viewed the red Raiders as the likely Big 12 CFP representative from the preseason on.
Then comes Utah on Oct. 17. If Colorado loses both games, it would be 2-4 with six games left. At that point, the question will be whether the team has enough fight to keep pushing or whether the season starts to slip away.
After the Utes, Colorado needs two of its next three
After Texas Tech and Utah, Colorado faces Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Arizona State. The Buffs realistically need to win at least two of those three games to stay on course for bowl eligibility.
That won’t be easy. Oklahoma State is improved, Kansas State has a veteran-led team, and Arizona State is a tough opponent. Colorado could be eliminated from bowl contention by Nov. 7 if it can’t find a way to win.
The final stretch offers a chance
If the Buffs are still in the hunt after the Arizona State game, the schedule gives them three more opportunities: Houston, Cincinnati and UCF. Those games won’t be easy wins, but they may be more attainable than the challenges Colorado faces over the next few weeks.
At 2-2, Colorado needs four wins in its final eight games to reach a bowl. My current projection puts the team somewhere between 3-9 and 6-6, with 4-8 feeling like the most realistic finish. From a glass-half-full perspective, that would still be an improvement over last year’s 3-9 record.
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